China's macroeconomic outlook : quarterly forecast and analysis report, October 2017 / Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University ; by the China's Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM) team Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University.
This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR is one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Minist...
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| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Singapore :
Springer,
[2018]
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| Series: | Current Chinese economic report series.
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Table of Contents:
- Intro; Preface; Acknowledgements; Principal Investigator; Research Team Members; Contents; Executive Summary; 1 China's Economic Performance in the First Half of 2017; 1.1 Overview; 1.2 Both GDP Growth and the Growth of Industrial Value Added Exceeded Projections, and Equipment Industries Continued to Expand Strongly; 1.3 Improved Exports and Inventory Replenishment Boosted the Growth of Industrial Value Added; 1.4 Both Private Investment and Manufacturing Investment Improved, and Infrastructure Investment Swelled Rapidly.
- 1.5 Housing Sales Went Strong, and the Third and Fourth-Tier Cities Reduced Real Estate Inventory Rapidly1.6 Employment, Residential Income, and Consumption Picked up, and Rural Consumption Pushed up the Overall Consumption; 1.7 Prices Remained Stable, and Supply-Side Contraction Pushed up Industrial Prices; 1.8 The Growth of M2 Continued to Slow Down, and Strengthened Financial Supervision Did not Hinder Social Funds from Supporting the Real Economy; 1.9 Proceeds from Transferring State-Owned Land-Use Rights Increased Substantially, While the Fiscal Deficit Expanded Strongly.
- 2 Quarterly Forecast for 2017-182.1 Assumptions on Exogenous Variables; 2.1.1 GDP Growth of the United States and the Euro Area; 2.1.2 The Exchange Rates; 2.1.3 The Broad Money Supply (M2); 2.2 Quarterly Forecast of China's Key Macroeconomic Indicators in 2017-18; 2.2.1 GDP Growth; 2.2.2 Key Prices Indices; 2.3 Growth of Other Key Macroeconomic Indicators; 2.3.1 Exports, Imports, and Foreign Exchange Reserves; 2.3.2 Growth of the FAI; 2.3.3 Growth of Residents' Income and Consumption; 3 Policy Simulation: Effects of Changing Budget Constraints on the Non-financial SOEs; 3.1 Background.
- 3.1.1 The Significant Increase in Leverage Rate of the SOEs Is the Main Source of China's Financial Risks3.1.2 Main Causes of High Leverage of Non-financial SOEs; 3.1.2.1 Excessive Macro Liquidity; 3.1.2.2 Financing Structure Dominated by Debt Financing; 3.1.2.3 The Development of Shadow Banking Has also Increased Markedly the Leverage of Non-financial Sectors, Especially Non-financial Enterprises; 3.1.2.4 The SOEs Face Soft Budget Constraint and the Loan Allocation Biased to the SOEs; 3.2 Simulation Plan; 3.2.1 Simulation Scenarios Planning; 3.2.1.1 Counter-Factual Assumptions on M2 Growth.
- 3.2.1.2 Counter-Factual Assumptions on Budget Constraints of Non-financial SOEs3.2.2 Transmission Mechanism of Policy Simulation; 3.3 Simulation Results; 3.3.1 Scenario I the SOEs Face Soft Budget Constraint; 3.3.2 Scenario II the SOEs Face the Hard Budget Constraint; 4 Policy Implications and Suggestions; 5 Appendix: Report on the Questionnaire Survey on China's Macroeconomic Situation and Policy in 2017.