Handbook for Decisions Analysis [electronic resource] / Scott Barclay and Others.
Decision analysis is a quantitative method that permits the systematic evaluation of the costs or benefits accruing to courses of action that might be taken in a decision problem. It entails identification of the alternative choices involved, the assignment of values (costs/benefits) for possible ou...
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| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
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[S.l.] :
Distributed by ERIC Clearinghouse,
1977.
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| Summary: | Decision analysis is a quantitative method that permits the systematic evaluation of the costs or benefits accruing to courses of action that might be taken in a decision problem. It entails identification of the alternative choices involved, the assignment of values (costs/benefits) for possible outcomes, and the expression of the probability of those outcomes being realized. With this information at hand, one can then systematically combine the values and probabilities to show the probable gain or loss that is associated with alternative choices. Chapters 1 through 5 provide an overview of the major technical aspects of decision analysis: structuring models, assigning probabilities and values, conceptualizing personal probabilities, developing inferences from evidence, and determining information value. The concepts are developed in the context of defense or defense-related examples. Chapter 6 provides a case study in the form of a dialogue, between a decision analyst and a task force commander, centered around the use of decision analysis in resolving a decision problem faced by the commander. The case study is designed to exemplify all the principles developed in chapters 1 through 5. (Author/IRT) |
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| Item Description: | ERIC Document Number: ED153329. Sponsoring Agency: Advanced Research Projects Agency (DOD), Washington, DC. Sponsoring Agency: Office of Naval Research, Washington, DC. Contract Number: N00014-76-0074. ERIC Note: Occasional figures may not reproduce clearly due to small print size. |
| Physical Description: | 285 p. |