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|a pnnl-sa--121575
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|a Exploring precipitation pattern scaling methodologies and robustness among CMIP5 models
|h [electronic resource]
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b United States. Department of Energy. ;
|a Oak Ridge, Tenn. :
|b distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Department of Energy,
|c 2017.
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|a p. 1889-1902 :
|b digital, PDF file.
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|a text
|b txt
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|a online resource
|b cr
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|a Published through SciTech Connect.
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|a 05/12/2017.
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|a "pnnl-sa--121575"
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|a "KP1703030"
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|a Geoscientific Model Development (Online) 10 5 ISSN 1991-9603 AM.
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|a Ben Kravitz; Cary Lynch; Corinne Hartin; Ben Bond-Lamberty.
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| 520 |
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|a <p>Pattern scaling is a well-established method for approximating modeled spatial distributions of changes in temperature by assuming a time-invariant pattern that scales with changes in global mean temperature. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for annual mean precipitation (regression and epoch difference) and evaluate which method is <q>better</q> in particular circumstances by quantifying their robustness to interpolation/extrapolation in time, inter-model variations, and inter-scenario variations. Both the regression and epoch-difference methods (the two most commonly used methods of pattern scaling) have good absolute performance in reconstructing the climate model output, measured as an area-weighted root mean square error. We decompose the precipitation response in the RCP8.5 scenario into a CO<sub>2</sub> portion and a non-CO<sub>2</sub> portion. Extrapolating RCP8.5 patterns to reconstruct precipitation change in the RCP2.6 scenario results in large errors due to violations of pattern scaling assumptions when this CO<sub>2</sub>-/non-CO<sub>2</sub>-forcing decomposition is applied. As a result, the methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields to be utilized in other models (including integrated assessment models or impacts assessment models) for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.</p>
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|b AC05-76RL01830.
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|a Environmental Sciences.
|2 edbsc.
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|a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (U.S.).
|4 res.
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|a United States.
|b Department of Energy.
|4 spn.
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|a United States.
|b Department of Energy.
|b Office of Scientific and Technical Information.
|4 dst.
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|u http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1358485
|z Online Access (via OSTI)
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| 907 |
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|a .b91645785
|b 03-09-23
|c 08-04-17
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|b 08-04-17
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|a University of Colorado Boulder
|b Online
|c Online
|d Online
|e E 1.99:pnnl-sa--121575
|h Superintendent of Documents classification
|i web
|n 1
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