Off the books : understanding and mitigating the fiscal risks of infrastructure / Matías Herrera Dappe, Vivien Foster, Aldo Musacchio, Teresa Ter-Minassian, and Burak Turkgulu.
Developing countries face massive infrastructure needs, but public spending on infrastructure is inadequate, and public investment has been declining in recent years. Rising debt levels and tightening fiscal and monetary conditions are putting further pressure on the funds available for infrastructu...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, DC :
World Bank Group,
[2023]
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| Series: | Sustainable infrastructure series.
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Table of Contents:
- Front Cover
- Contents
- Foreword
- Acknowledgments
- About the Authors
- Main Messages
- Abbreviations
- Overview: Key Findings and Policy Recommendations
- What are the main sources of fiscal risks from infrastructure?
- Off-budget modalities drain public finances more often and on a larger scale than usually assumed
- Inefficiencies in public provision lead to fiscal surprises in the near, medium, and long term
- When it rains, it pours: Fiscal risks from infrastructure during bad times
- Implementing a reform agenda can create sustainable fiscal space for infrastructure
- Notes
- References
- Chapter 1: A Conceptual Framework for Assessing Fiscal Risks from Infrastructure
- Main Messages
- Introduction
- Fiscal Risks from Infrastructure
- In Sum
- References
- Chapter 2: Fiscal Risks Associated with Direct Public Provision of Infrastructure
- Main Messages
- Introduction
- Near-Term Risk of OVERSPENDING on Infrastructure Projects
- Medium-Term Risk of Unanticipated Capital Expenditure on Infrastructure
- Long-Term Risks of Economic Underperformance from the Squeezing of Public Spending on Infrastructure
- In Sum
- Note
- References
- Chapter 3: Fiscal Risks and Costs of State-Owned Enterprises
- Main Messages
- Introduction
- Size, Performance, and Cost Structure as Sources of Fiscal Risk in SOEs
- Performance of SOEs versus Performance of Similar Private Firms
- SOEs and Fiscal Risk: Slow Drip or Tail Risk?
- Predicting Fiscal Risks
- Capacity of SOEs to Deal with Shocks
- In Sum
- Notes
- References
- Chapter 4: Fiscal Risks and Costs of Public-Private Partnerships
- Main Messages
- Introduction
- Guarantees
- Renegotiation of PPPs
- Early Termination of PPPs
- Frameworks for Managing Fiscal Risks from PPPs
- In Sum
- Notes
- References
- Chapter 5: A Reform Agenda to Create Sustainable Fiscal Space for Infrastructure
- Main Messages
- Introduction
- Integrated Management of Fiscal Resources and Risks
- Efficient Direct Public Provision of Infrastructure
- Effective Fiscal and Corporate Governance of SOEs
- A Robust PPP Framework
- In Sum
- Notes
- References
- Appendix A: Main Data Sources Used in the Report
- Appendix B: The World Bank Infrastructure SOEs Database
- Appendix C: Methodology Used to Compare the Performance of SOEs and Similar Private Firms
- Appendix D: Big Bang versus Frequent Small-Drip Events
- Appendix E: Methodology Used to Compare SOEs That Suffered a Negative Shock as a Result of the Decline in Oil and Gas Prices with a Control Group of SOEs
- Appendix F: Methodology for Estimating Fiscal Risks from Early Termination
- Boxes
- Box O.1 Sectoral features affecting the size and profile of fiscal risks from SOEs
- Box O.2 Sectoral features affecting the size and profile of fiscal risks from PPPs
- Box 2.1 Using data envelopment analysis to assess the efficiency of spending
- Box 3.1 Sensitivity of profitability of infrastructure SOEs in Indonesia and Kenya to changes in fuel costs and demand.